How warm will the Fall of this challenging 2023 be? No doubts about environmental temperature: climate change has been teaching us to bear with anything. But from the economic point of view, and as a consequence from the social one as well, there may be surprises.
Analysing the data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), for example, the picture is clear straightaway: in August, a slight decrease in the consumer sentiment has been estimated, its index going from 106.7 to 106.5. More emphasized, instead, was the decrease in the composite index for the business sentiment, which fell from 108.9 to 106.8. However, it is known that consumers are influenced by the usual negative bias after coming back from the summer holidays, so much so that the so-called “personal sentiment” took a downturn as well. For what concerns the manufacturing industry, instead, just before summer break the sales volumes had actually increased by 0.4% in economic terms, resulting from a domestic market growth of +1.8%. In detail, in June the growing indexes were those of the intermediate goods (+0.6%) and the capital goods (+2.1%), while consumer goods remained stable.
Then, what is it that is scaring our businesses? The “Fall recovery” has historically been a delicate moment, even more so in a phase as the one we are living, which is typically critical. But it is precisely for this reason that what remained stable was always quality, craftsmanship, and appreciation for the Made in Italy that is so valued anywhere in the world. The way forward is thus clear: manufacturing needs to be top-tier to hold the market, often niche, and most of all it needs to be exclusive. No large figures are expected, but it is precisely for this reason that good, if not excellent, results keep steadily and honorably coming.
Exports can help with this. In its annual report, Sace, the ministry-owned Italian export credit agency, suggests Italian enterprises precisely to learn to navigate the international markets, in anticipation of a swifter year 2024 for what concerns macroeconomic perspectives.
The annual forecast suggests that Italian goods exports will grow by 6.8%, exceeding 660 billion euros. The pace will remain fast in 2024 with +4.6%, to stabilize around a yearly average of +3.8% over the two following years.
Where should we move towards? Growth will be stronger and stronger in markets such as those of the Gulf countries, China and India, Thailand and Vietnam, as well as Mexico and Brazil, without forgetting the US and Croatia, the Eurozone’s newcomer and gateway to the Balkan markets.
So, indications are precise. And they push towards an international audience.